The H!P International Pinstickers Guide (Hello! Blog odds)

In just under a week the worlds greatest steeplechase the Grand National will be run. The bookies are already expecting a huge profit but who needs horse racing when you’ve got something far better to bet on. Yes it’s The H!P International Hello! Blog Poll. So let’s look at the runners and riders, the movers and shakers, the beauty and the beast Aika. Just what are the odds for each member? Also how will they do compared to last year?

Takahashi Ai

Result last year? 1st

Odds on winning this year? 4/5 Joint favourite.

Odds on a top ten finish? No odds available (a team of special mathemeticians were trying to work out the odds but it’s such a foregone conclusion that they couldn’t find a large enough number to be the first part of the odds. Basically it was going to work out that if you bet £1 on her finishing in the top ten and she did…you’d then have to pay the bookmaker at least £10,000 in ‘winnings’).

Last year Ai-chan stormed the charts by being the international winner overall, the international winner for both genders and by being the national winner in 6 of the 11 countries where results were available (results by country and also a gender breakdown is here). Ai must surely be a firm favourite again this year but she is a year older and no 23 year old has ever won the Hello! Blog poll (probably). Will her age count against her or will her undeniable loveliness see her through?

Niigaki Risa

Result last year? 5th

Odds on winning this year? 15/1

Odds on a top ten finish? 8/1

Risa pulled off a surprise result last year by scraping into the top five, helped partly by a shock win in the Brazilian National. This pushed Michishige into 6th place. This year Niigaki has been heavily handicapped due to having a really terrible haircut so another top 5 finish seems a stretch.

Kamei Eri

Position last year? 4th

Odds on winning this year? 4/1

Odds on a top ten finish? Evens

An always solid performer but perhaps lacking the finishing power to go all the way. However her recent success in the Photobook Hurdle suggests she perhaps shouldn’t be written off too soon.

Michishige Sayumi

Position last year? 6th

Odds on winning this year? 8/1

Odds on a top ten finish? 2/1

Despite a credible 6th place finish last year Sayumi didn’t manage a top three finish in any of the national races. However now that she has a blog there’s always the possibility that she’ll find out about this competition, set up thousands of fake e-mail addresses and vote herself into the lead. Sure it’d be cheating but since when has cheating been frowned upon in sport? Whether her exceptionally egotistical tv appearances will help her cause or hinder her this year remains to be seen.

Tanaka Reina

Position last year? 3rd

Odds on winning this year? 2/1

Odds on a top ten finish? 1/10

Having managed a top three finish in four of the Nationals last year and with a bizarre but entertaining cartoon series behind her the Yankii Cat must be a live contender. However will the lack of a photobook in the past year work against her? Probably not but at the end of a tough season a good photobook result could have helped stave off any tiredness.

Kusumi Koharu

Withdrawn.

Mitsui Aika

Position last year? 26th

Odds on winning this year? 1000000000000000000000000000000000000000000/1

Odds on a top ten finish? 1000000000000000000/1

With a highest finishing position in the individual nationals of 18th (Hong Kong obviously needs more psychiatrists) Mitsui must surely have a mountain to climb if she wants to get anywhere near the top. Even taking into account the smaller field this year it still seems like a momentous task for the ugly, annoying, whiny, talentless waste of space. She is surely one of the favourites to finish last? Having said that dogs like running up and down a lot so a mountain may not be beyond her capabilities. Also she does have four legs rather than two.

Junjun

Position last year? 13th

Odds on winning this year? 10/1

Odds on a top ten finish? 3/1

An excellent win in the UK National helped secure Junjun a creditable top 15 finish last year. Since then the mad but cute and extremely funny Chinese singer has gone from strength to strength. Shining on any tv show she appears on will surely help Junjun secure a top ten finish but how high can she get?

Linlin

Position last year? 28th.

Odds on winning this year? 10/1

Odds on a top ten finish? 3/1

The girl they’re starting to call Linwin came last of the Momusu nine last year but did manage a surprise second place in the UK National. Since then she’s charmed the fans in Los Angeles and become the leader of the new Mini Moni. All of which should surely help her at least thrash Woof Woof and avoid last place. But a top ten finish could well be on the cards.

Shimizu Saki

Position last year? 19th

Odds on winning this year? 50/1

Odds on a top ten finish? 10/1.

A tenth place finish in the Thailand National helped the Captain get a top 20 finish last year but even with the smaller field this year she would seem to be an extreme long shot. The plainly cute or cutely plain leader will certainly give it her all but will she have the stamina to succeed? Unlikely. She’ll probably faint before the finish line.

Momoko Tsugunaga

Position last year? 10th

Odds on winning this year? 6/1

Odds on a top ten finish? 2/1

With a credible second place last year in both Thailand (they love their Berryz) and Australia the insane as batshit mini idol is a definite contender again this year. Whether she’s murdering an innocent octopus and cooking it wrong or singing catchy tunes with Buono the Berryz member is never boring. Unlike the other Berryz members. A livewire contender.

Tokunaga Chinami

Position last year? 27th

Odds on winning this year? 75/1

Odds on a top ten place? 20/1

So far Chinami has underperformed even in Thailand. Last year only finishing 20th. Will a photobook have helped her cause this year? Debatable. But the cute idol deserves to at least beat Mitsui (up).

Sudou Maasa

Position last year? 35th

Chances of winning this year? 200/1

Chances of a top ten finish? 80/1

Maasa was last of the Berryz last year but has had a photobook since then. She’s also lost a lot of weight (or had it stolen by Risako). She now looks more like a model than even the exceptionally model-looking Erika Umeda (not that hard I know). Even so Maasa would probably be better advised to concentrate on beating Mitsui than on trying to keep up woth Lovely and co.

Natsuyaki Miyabi

Position last year? 7th

Odds on winning this year? 9/1

Odds on a top ten finish? 4/1

This lovely filly achieved seven top ten finishes last year including a third place finish in The Thailand National. So another high finish would seem likely. Given that Buono just go from strength to strength a top five finish would not seem out of the question.

Kumai Yurina

Position last year? 20th

Odds on winning this year? 80/1

Odds on a top ten finish? 40/1

Despite being very attractive Yurina seems to be an under-achiever. Whether sexily eating fruit in an advert can change her fortune remains to be seen. You may be better putting your money under your mattress though.

Sugaya Risako

Position last year? 12th

Odds on winning this year? 14/1

Odds on a top ten finish? 10/1

Despite finishing a disappointing twelfth last year Risako has gone up in the weights and is probably carrying top weight this year. Despite that she is always in with a chance of regaining her form. Especially if a new photobook is on the horizon. Last year she came sixth in China and ninth in Taiwan, Thailand and Hong Kong but she will have to improve across the board to be in with a decent chance. Still one to write-off at your peril.

Erika Umeda

Withdrawn.

Yajima Maimi

Position last year? 9th

Odds on winning this year? 14/1

Odds on a top ten finish? 5/1

Maimi claimed a credible top ten finish last year with an impressive eight top ten National finishes including a mighty second in Mexico. But the form of C-ute has been poor since then. Even so an impressive showing in Hawaii could still help play it’s part and Maimi must still be in with a strong chance of putting in another fine display.

Nakajima Saki

Position last year? 30th

Odds on winning this year? 66/1

Odds on a top ten finish? 33/1

Nacky’s best finish last year was a lowly twenty-fifth in Canada. Even so with a great photobook behind her and her beauty more on show than ever before this could be the year Nacky starts to climb. Unlikely to win but unlikely to finish last too.

Kanna Arihara

Pulled up injured last year and was put down.

Okai Chisato

Position last year? 22nd

Odds on winning this year? 66/1

Odds on a top ten finish? 20/1

Her highest finish last year was thirteenth in Brazil but Chisato has really hit her stride this year and is looking very fit. This race couldn’t have come at a better time for her as she’s been in fine form since last summer and seems to just get better with age. An outsider well worth watching. In close-up. Preferably in high-definition with the curtains drawn and your hand down your pants. Err..I mean…err…

Suzuki Airi

Position last year? 2nd

Odds on winning this year? 4/5 joint favourite

Odds on a top ten finish? Like with Ai-chan no odds are available. The mathemeticians all got headaches.

Airi achieved nine top ten finishes last year with firsts in China, Thailand and Australia. Only Brazil (11th) and Great Britain (14th) let her down. Like with Ai-chan she was equally loved by both men and women, finishing second amongst both groups. Seeing as she’s a Suzuki she should have the speed to handle this race. She’s joint favourite with good reason.

Hagiwara Mai

Position last year? 24th

Odds on winning this year? 100/1

Odds on a top ten finish? 66/1

Despite a credible twelfth place last year in China Hagiwara Mai has mainly under-performed. She has to battle history in two ways if she wants to win. No 14 year old has ever won (probably) and no bobble head has ever won either. Although if it came down to a photo finish her huge head could be an advantage. Although Natsuyaki Miyabi’s long face could perhaps edge it out. As could Mitsui Aika’s gigantic forehead.

Mano Erina

Position last year? 18th

Odds on winning this year? 16/1

Odds on a top ten finish? 9/1

With a high of eleventh in the Chinese National last year on the face of it Mano would seem to have a lot to do. However with her major debut behind her, and having released several singles and an album since then, not to mention two photobooks and several net dramas, Mano’s star is definitely still in the ascendancy. It wouldn’t take much improvement for her to grab a top ten finish but based on her sales of merchandise in the past year she could easily go even higher.

Wada Ayaka

Position last year? 47th

Odds on winning this year? 500/1

Odds on a top ten finish? 200/1

This race may have come around too soon for the soon to be major-debuting singer. Very much one to watch for the future.

Maeda Yuuka

Position last year? 32nd

Odds on winning this year? 150/1

Odds on a top ten finish? 80/1

There’s a buzz around Maeda but this race is perhaps a year too early for her. Even so if she can improve on her 16th place in the Thailand National (where the young always seem to do well) a top ten finish, while very much a long shot, is still a possibility.

Kanon Fukuda

Position last year? 31st

Odds on winning this year? 150/1

Odds on a top ten finish? 80/1

Kago Kanon had a credible fifteenth place finish in one race last year. You can probably guess where. It starts with “Thai” and ends in “Land”. However since then she has gone from strength to strength. A top ten finish overall would be a surprise but not an impossibility.

Ogawa Saki

Position last year? N/A

Odds of winning this year? 1000/1

Odds of a top ten finish? 250/1

Ogawa Saki has had a busy year culminating with a regular slot on Oha Star alongside Kusumi Koharu and with a major label debut announced for her group S/mileage. Even so this race has come too soon and can best be put down as a learning experience. One to watch for the future.

The odds in full (win only)

Takahashi Ai 4/5 Joint favourite.

Suzuki Airi 4/5 joint favourite

Tanaka Reina 2/1

Kamei Eri 4/1

Momoko Tsugunaga 6/1

Michishige Sayumi 8/1

Natsuyaki Miyabi 9/1

Junjun 10/1

Linlin 10/1

Sugaya Risako 14/1

Yajima Maimi 14/1

Niigaki Risa 15/1

Mano Erina 16/1

Shimizu Saki 50/1

Nakajima Saki 66/1

Okai Chisato 66/1

Tokunaga Chinami 75/1

Kumai Yurina 80/1

Hagiwara Mai 100/1

Maeda Yuuka 150/1

Kanon Fukuda 150/1

Sudou Maasa 200/1

Wada Ayaka 500/1

Ogawa Saki 1000/1

Mitsui Aika 1000000000000000000000000000000000000000000/1

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10 responses to “The H!P International Pinstickers Guide (Hello! Blog odds)

    • She might well sneak in. Although there’s one or two others like Mano or Linlin who may get more support this year than last. Mano’s merchandise sales have been great over the past year. Then again she seems to get a lukewarm response from a lot of online western H!P fans so..

  1. Risako and Linlin both made my top ten – I’d love to see them make it in the overall rankings.

  2. Pingback: Hello! Blog Poll 2010 RESULTS! « Morningtime·

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